A friend was asking about the currency pair and therefore, i did a technical analysis on it and gives some fundamental views as well.


From the chart, we can see that the JPY has weakened substantially since the onset of covid where the pair hit 74. As the JPY has always been a safe-haven, its demand shot up in the beginning of the pandemic when the market experienced a major selloff. Global traders who were employing the JPY for carry trades were busy buying back JPY to cover their positions as well.

The trend has reversed though since the second half of 2020 when central banks stepped in aggressively to calm the jittery market. With the global market still in the midst of a full recovery and the FED aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, I believed that the JPY will not strengthens too much and falls back below 80 in the near term. But the global recovery is expected to be bumpy, resulting in the currency pair trading in a range between 81.87 to 83.39 in the coming few months, up to the end of October 2021.

Strictly my views and not advocating anyone to take any positions or buy anything.