Re-opening of borders in Oct
Full re-opening in 120 days ahead of earlier 1 Jan 22
The Thai PM announced that Thailand will re-open borders fully in October
21 (i.e. within 120 days) ahead of the earlier schedule of 1 Jan 22. This is
good news for the industry as it is in time to capture the 4Q high season.
For this reason, we raise hotel occupancy by 2-5% each year for FY21 and
FY22. For AOT, we raised the number of international passengers by
400,000 (50%) in FY21E and by 5.7m (20%) in FY22E. We increase TPs for
all by 3-15% to reflect the better profitability in the next one to two years.
ERW stands to benefit most from this re-opening as 92% of normalized
revenues are from hotels in Thailand, compared to 60% for AWC, 35% for
CENTEL and 11% for MINT and hence, we raise ERW’s TP by 15% to THB3
and upgrade to HOLD. AOT is still our top pick (TP THB74), as it is the main
beneficiary of the re-opening. We expect AOT’s core profit to surpass the
pre-Covid level in FY24 by 34% to THB32.6b, due to the strong growth in
duty-free income from King Power in FY23/FY24 onwards that increases as
international passenger volume rises.