May 2021 consumer price inflation
■ Headline inflation eased more than expected to 4.4% yoy in May 21 on food
and fuel price ceilings, MCO demand weakness and tempered base effects.
■ With base effects peaking for headline inflation in Apr, we expect gradual
convergence with the trend in core inflation, which remains subdued.
■ Monetary policy to remain loose as the economy operates below potential,
amid extended FMCO. Reiterate our end-2021 OPR forecast of 1.75%.