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Seeing the light in China

  • While 3Q21 VONB slightly missed, its China performance was much better than many investors had feared. We are more bullish about 4Q21F outlook.
  • We expect 4Q21F VONB growth to rebound 14% yoy (3Q21:’s 4% yoy), with China the key swing factor, and HK strength to continue, in our view.
  • Regions that were weak in 3Q21 were Singapore, Malaysia and Other markets, with Covid-19 being the key reason.
  • AIA remains our sector top pick; reiterate Add. We trim our TP to HK$119 on marginally lower FY21F embedded value estimates.