■ NODX growth accelerated to 17.9% yoy in Oct 21, beating our and consensus estimates, accompanied by a sequential 4.2% mom SA growth.
■ Electronic NODX expanded 14.9% yoy, its 11th consecutive month of growth, with ICs making up 40% of total 10M21 electronic NODX growth.
■ NODX to Singapore’s top 10 trading partners improved by 17.5% yoy in Oct 21, whilst NODX to China made up 40% of total 10M21 NODX growth.
NODX registers 11th consecutive month of yoy gains
The non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth accelerated, once again, to 17.9% yoy in Oct 21 (vs. +12.0% yoy in Sep 21), the strongest pace of expansion since Oct 17. The Oct NODX also beat our and consensus estimates for the second month in a row. On a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, the NODX lifted sequentially by 4.2% mom SA in Oct 21 (vs. 1.0% mom SA in Sep 21). Both electronic and non-electronic NODX grew yoy and mom SA in Oct 21.
Specialised machinery exports robust as chip demand continues
Non-electronic NODX expanded at a stronger rate of 18.9% yoy in Oct 21 (vs. +11.4% yoy in Sep 21), outpacing that of electronic NODX for the first time in 14 months. The expansion was driven by growth in non-monetary gold (+223.2% yoy), specialised machinery (+49.3% yoy), and petrochemicals (+39.1% yoy). Non-monetary gold grew as a result of the low base in 2020, while specialised machinery and petrochemicals were up yoy for the 11th consecutive month. We expect specialised machinery, specifically those used in chip production, to stay strong in the medium-term.
ICs make up 40% of electronics’ 10M21 growth amid shortages
Growth in electronic NODX hastened to 14.9% yoy in Oct 21 (vs. +14.1% yoy in Sep 21), contributing 3.6% pts to Oct NODX growth. Top contributors to the growth in electronic products were integrated circuits (ICs) (+22.6% yoy in Oct 21 vs. +7.0% yoy in Sep 21), PCs (+18.1% yoy in Oct 21 vs. +44.9% yoy in Sep 21), and diodes & transistors (+19.8% yoy in Oct 21 vs. +23.0% yoy in Sep 21). 10M21 electronic NODX is up by 15.3% yoy, with ICs contributing towards 40% of total growth (PCs in second place at 24%). The global chip shortage is likely to persist into well into next year, providing a boon for Singaporean electronics.
China contributed towards 40% of NODX growth YTD
NODX to the top 10 markets accelerated further, in-line with overall NODX in Oct 21, rising 17.5% yoy (vs. +12.0% yoy in Sep 21). The largest contributors to the rise in NODX were China (35.6%), Malaysia (29.4%) and Taiwan (32.7%) with the top shipments being ICs (Malaysia: +47.3%, Taiwan: +41.0%), and specialised machinery (China: +53.1%, Taiwan: +21.6%). NODX to the US contracted 3.9% and to Hong Kong by 0.2% yoy, whilst NODX to Thailand worsened to -12.6% yoy in Oct 21. China’s better than expected retail sales and industrial production performance, released recently, may have supported Singapore’s NODX to China (+35.6% yoy in Oct 21 vs. +38.9% yoy in Sep 21). Nevertheless, concerns over China’s slowdown are risks to Singapore’s NODX performance as China accounts for 18.8% of Singapore’s NODX YTD. However, this potential shortfall could be mitigated by reopening prospects in neighbouring countries. For example, NODX to Malaysia (+29.4% yoy in Oct 21 vs. -4.1% yoy in Sep 21) and Indonesia (22.3% yoy in Oct 21 vs. 21.9% yoy in Sep 21) improved in Oct 21. This can be attributed to a further relaxation in movement restrictions in these two countries.