- GDP growth is expected to normalize to 3.5% in 2022 while inflation, likely to average 2.4%, could emerge as the new risk
- Monetary policy would have to rebalance the changing risk dynamics between growth and inflation
- FX: USD/SGD to rise to 1.39 ahead of the two Fed hikes we forecast for 4Q22 before returning to 1.34 again on a less uncertain and more synchronized global recovery in 2023
- Rates: The interplay between Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Federal Reserve will dictate how SGD interest rates move in 2022
Strong growth performance in 2021
Singapore’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis has turned out to be slightly stronger than expected. The economy posted a strong showing of 7.1% YoY and 1.3% QoQ sa in the third quarter even with the impact of the second round of Heightened Alert measures in Jul-Aug period. Barring any significant slide in GDP growth for 4Q, particularly from a weaker growth outlook in China, full year GDP growth for 2021 is expected to average about 7%, up from our previous forecast of 6.7%.
Slower manufacturing growth ahead
Key manufacturing sector remains the main engine of growth, but momentum is waning. The electronics cluster which has been an important driver in the recovery process is losing impetus. Although semiconductor equipment billings and global shipments of semiconductors remain robust amid strong investment in digital solutions and new technologies, recent data is suggesting that global demand in this aspect has peaked and this all-important driver of Singapore’s growth could see weaker performance in the coming quarters.
All eyes on China
All eyes will be China in the coming 6-12 months, as the biggest risk to Singapore’s growth. China’s power supply shortage will imply further disruption to regional supply chain and make for a weaker manufacturing growth in Singapore in 4Q. China’s recent policy shift would also have significant implications on Singapore and the region. With so many different factors at play, there is a danger of growth undershooting in China, and consequently on the region, which could then impact Singapore’s growth prospects in the coming twelve months. Policy uncertainty remains the biggest risk in this regard.
Services recovery to gain speed
While recovery in the services sector has thus far been uneven, a more broad-based improvement is on the cards. High inoculation rate will prompt further easing of safe measures and make room for more VTLs. Although performance in the travel related sector is unlikely to turnaround significantly in the immediate term, there is certainly light at the end of the tunnel for the worst affected industries. Barring risks of COVID resurgence or further mutations, we expect global travel to gain momentum from mid-2022 onwards. This would prompt a speedier recovery in the hospitality, F&B, aviation, and tourism-related services as more quarantine free travel arrangements are set up. Overall, we believe the recovery in the services sector will become more broad-based as we head into 2022.
A high vaccination rate has made for the safe reopening of the economy and allowed economic activities to resume. Barring risks of weakening efficacy of existing vaccines due to virus mutations or waning antibody levels, the reopening of the economy will provide renewed impetus to growth over the next 12 months. That said, economic normalisation remains at work and recovery momentum is expected to slow. China is the key risk to watch on the growth front, which will have deep implications on the prospects for the manufacturing sector, which thus far has been the main engine of the recovery. We expect full year GDP growth to ease to 3.5% in 2022, down from a projected 7.0% this year.
Inflation will prompt tighter monetary policy
Inflation is gradually rearing its head again. CPI inflation spiked up to 3.2% YoY in Oct21, from a mere 0.2% in Jan21. The MAS CPI core inflation also rose higher to 1.5%, from -0.2% in the same period. Though this is partly due to the low base in the same period last year, inflation pass-through from external sources and the narrowing of the domestic output gap would imply higher price pressure going forward. Moreover, there could be further upside risk to inflation should the GST hike be announced and implemented in 2022. Taking all into account, we expect overall headline inflation to register 2.4%. Likewise, core inflation will also be significantly higher.
With inflation likely to emerge as a key risk, the authorities may have to tighten monetary policy further in 2022. As it is, the most recent readings on the data front are suggesting that another policy action could be on the cards. Should inflation readings continue to track higher, the central bank could be prompted to act again, and probably as early as April.
GST hike to be announced in Budget 2022
The impending GST hike will be announced in Budget 2022. Economic conditions are now robust enough, presenting a window for such policy move. However, the specific timeline of the hike is less certain and will depend on the pace of economic normalisation. In our opinion, real GDP has reverted to pre-COVID levels in 3Q21, and overall unemployment rate is trending towards the natural rate of unemployment of about 2%. Barring any unforeseen risk to growth, both conditions would be in place in 2022 for an eventual GST hike. A GST hike in July of 2022 could be on the cards, in our opinion.
Beyond the GST hike, Budget 2021 could surprise on the upside. The government’s total operating revenue for FY21 as of September has been stronger than expected, largely from a robust inflow from corporate income taxes and stronger showings from other broad revenue categories. Importantly, as economic conditions are expected to improve, policymakers may be inclined to build up the fiscal coffer again. On that, we expect the fiscal stance to turn modestly contractionary in Budget 2022.