Another beat with 4sen 4th interim DPS announced
Blue sky scenario: 15% net dividend yield for FY22E
Strong FY21 PATMI was buoyed by record CPO ASP of MYR4,341/t (+54% YoY) which more than offset the lower FFB output (-8% YoY). For FY22E, besides high CPO ASP forecast, our revised headline PATMI of MYR526m (+118% YoY) also included MYR323m in land disposal gains. With the gain, we raise DPR assumption to 100% (from 60%) on FY22E core PATMI which translates to just 39% of headline PATMI. If BPLANT maintains its 60% DPR policy on realised PATMI, net DY could hit 15% for FY22E. We also raise
RNAV-TP to MYR1.03 (+10sen) on rolling forward valuation to FY23E.
FY21 results were again above our expectations
4Q21 PATMI of MYR85m (+185% YoY, -11% QoQ) was boosted by higher CPO ASP achieved at MYR5,004/t (+52% YoY, +17% QoQ) while FFB output was flat YoY (-6% QoQ). This brings FY21 PATMI to MYR241m (+432% YoY), beating our FY21E by 16%. We estimate BPLANT’s FY21 all-in operating cost to customer was at a higher MYR2,346/t (+9% YoY), in part due the lower FFB yields of 13.3t/ha (-11% YoY) and in part due to the higher state taxes and windfall profit levies paid. A 4th interim DPS of 4sen was
announced (ex-date: 10 Mar), bringing total DPS to 8.35sen for FY21.
Anticipating a small recovery in output in FY22E
Due to present labour shortages in Malaysia, we have imputed only a small recovery in FFB output at just 3% YoY for FY22E. Given rising cost pressure, especially fertiliser, we have raised our unit cost of production estimate by +8% YoY to MYR2,522/t.
FY22E’s MYR526m headline PATMI to boost DY
Following our industry-wide CPO ASP revisions to MYR4,100/t (from MYR3,200/t) for 2022E and MYR3,200/t (from MYR3,000/t) for 2023E, we raise BPLANT FY22E/23E core EPS forecasts by 124%/28% respectively. Our FY22E headline EPS is raised by 481% as we incorporate an estimated MYR323m (14.4sen/sh) of Kulai land disposal gain (664ha sold) that was completed on 27 Jan. The sale raised MYR429m (19.2sen/sh) in cash proceeds. We also introduce FY24E EPS forecast.