A total of 2-3 rate hikes with a total of 50 to 75 basis points increase in 2022.
A 25 basis points hike in March and another 25 basis points in June. Subsequently, another 25 basis points hike towards the end of the year is highly dependable on the inflation numbers for the second half of the year. With a number of macro headwinds (slowdown in corporate earnings, Ukraine crisis, coronavirus). I believe that FED will most likely be cautious in hiking rates, so as not to abruptly disrupting recovery in the US economy post-covid.
Inflation possibly easing off in the second half of the year. Though FED started tapering their bond purchases late 2021, the actual QE ended in February 2022. As such, during that period of time (tampering start to end), liquidity was still being injected into the system. I believe the impact of lower liquidity in the system as a result of the tapering will only be felt in the real economy after about 6 months, which is around the month of August 2022. The impact should be reflected in the inflation numbers in the second half of the year.
Market Expectations vs Mine
