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DBS: ARA US Hospitality Trust – BUY TP US$0.70

Proposed sale of Hyatt Place Chicago Itasca for US$7.75m
What’s new 

Our thoughts
We think that the divestment of Hyatt Place Chicago Itasca is a positive for the portfolio given its weak recovery and muted outlook. The property was not NPI positive since the pandemic and up to FY21, while valuations for the property declined y-o-y from FY20 to FY21 even though majority of the hotels’ valuations improved. 
This is potentially the start of the portfolio rejuvenation plan for ARAUS, with other non-core or underperforming assets likely to be disposed in the future. We identified two properties with similar metrics to Hyatt Place Chicago Itasca in the Mid-West region, a structurally weaker hospitality market compared to the Southern parts of US: 
Potential divestment targets

PropertyValuation (US$m)Year commenced operations
As at 31 Dec 2019As at 31 Dec 2020As at 31 Dec 2021
Hyatt Place Chicago Itasca9.88.07.81996
Hyatt Place Cleveland Independence10.18.27.31996
Hyatt Place Cincinnati Northeast10.18.78.31999

Proceeds raised from asset disposals could be used to 1) acquire accretive, higher yield properties or 2) pare down existing debt to improve gearing levels. We think that acquisitions of Marriott or Hilton branded hotels could be on the cards as the three Marriott branded hotels have outperformed the Hyatt House and Hyatt Place hotels. Looking forward, ARAUS will target assets with 7-8% cap rate on stabilised basis. We estimate FY22F gearing to decline from the 42.2% to 41.6% should the full quantum of divestment proceeds be used to pare down debt, and a drastic improvement from ARAUS’s 44.3% leverage ratio as at end FY21. 
ARAUS gearing sensitivity with divestment proceeds used to reduce debt

Maintain BUY, with an unrevised target price of US$0.70. 

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