Life is a constant struggle
? 2H21 NBV fall of 52% yoy was the worst of peers, driven by declines in margins. 2H21 persistency deterioration was also worse than peers.
? We find it puzzling that NCI has decided to raise actuarial investment return assumptions (Fig 5) even though government bond yields had been falling.
? On the plus side, 2H21 agent numbers only fell 12% hoh and were better than most peers.
? Maintain Add rating. TP cut 6% to HK$28.50 on 2-4% lower EV and 13-14% lower NBV FY22F-24F assumptions.