Stronger sales growth expected in 2022
? Moutai released its detailed results for FY21. Total revenue grew by 11.7% yoy to
Rmb109.5bn, and net profit rose by 12.3% yoy to Rmb52.5bn, in line with our
expectations, driven mainly by strong sales growth in the direct sales channel.
? The Company guided total revenue growth by c.15% yoy in FY22F, which is stronger
than that in FY20–FY21 and in line with 15% yoy in FY19 and our original forecast.
? We think the current Omicron outbreak will have a limited impact on full-year sales
growth due to Moutai’s super premium brand and strong market position, given steady
sales growth of 10% yoy in FY20 and 11% yoy in FY21 during the pandemic. We now
expect its sales to grow by 15.6% in FY22F with net profit up by 16.3% yoy.
? Reiterate Add with a new DCF-based TP of Rmb2,218, as the new management team
has launched strong initiatives in channel reforms and restarted the self-operating ecommerce platform in Mar for direct sales channel diversification.