Weekly: Passenger EV Sales Up 74% YoY And 10% MoM, Beating Estimates
Passenger EV sales grew 74% yoy and 10% mom to 580,000 units in Sep 22, beating estimates. BYD saw record-high sales in Sep 22. Li Auto saw 152% mom sales recovery in Sep 22, due to the debut of L9. XPeng’s deliveries dropped 12% mom in Sep 22 due to product transition. In this weekly, we do a sensitivity analysis on the renminbi depreciation on earnings and trim target prices of ten stocks on higher WACC. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: CATL, Fuayo Glass and Xusheng.
WHAT’S NEW
• CPCA estimates September retail sales of PV and passenger EV at 1.95m units (+23.3% yoy/+4.2% mom) and 580,000 units (+73.7% yoy/+9.6% mom), beating expectation. Passenger electric vehicle (EV) as a percentage of total passenger vehicle (PV) sales topped record at 30% in Sep 22. The latest round of lockdown did not hit September PV sales much, as many cities have reopened since the second week of
September. We keep our estimate on 2022 PV and EV sales (including both domestic sales and exports) at 22.36m units (+6% yoy) and 6.65m units (+89% yoy) respectively. Going forward, we expect EV sales to grow 30% in 2023, implying 30% market share in China’s auto market, on a par with that in Sep 22.
• BYD’s sales grew 183% yoy and 15% mom to top record at 201,259 units in Sep 22, including 94,941 units of battery electric vehicle (BEV) (+162% yoy/+15% mom) and 106,032 units of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) (+214% yoy/+16% mom). In 9M22, BYD’s sales grew 248% yoy to 1.17m units, vs our estimate of 1.80m units for full-year 2022. Going forward, BYD’s sales will be driven by the ramp-up of the sales of the new models Seal and Sea Lion. We keep 2022-24 sales estimates for BYD at 1.8m units/2.7m units/4.0m units respectively and net profit forecasts at Rmb7.53b/Rmb12.32b/Rmb19.50b respectively.
• Li Auto’s deliveries rebounded 63% yoy and 152% mom to 11,531 units in Sep 22, bringing 3Q22 deliveries to 26,524 units (+5.6% yoy/-7.5% qoq), above the latest guidance of 25,500 units. 9M22 deliveries grew 57% yoy to 86,927 units, vs our 2022 estimate of 146,000 units. The new model L9 registered 10,123 units of deliveries in Sep 22, the first month of debut. Li Auto on 30 Sep 22 officially launched another new model L8 as the replacement of ONE and started taking presales orders. The deliveries of L8 will kick start in Nov 22. As such, Li Auto’s deliveries will pick up significantly in 4Q22. We keep 2022-24 delivery estimates at 146,000 units/295,000 units/420,000 units and bottom line estimates at -Rmb1,195m/Rmb1,702m/Rmb6,117m respectively.
