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DBS: Mastercard Inc – Buy Target Price US$405.00

Solid 3Q22 results driven by cross border recovery and resilience in consumer spending

3Q22 net revenue grew $5756m and EPS of $2.68 beat expectations. 3Q22 net revenue grew 15% y-o-y, slightly above street expectations of 13.3% while EPS of $2.68 exceeded the street’s estimates of $2.57. 3Q22 net revenue came in at $5756m, (+15% yoy adjusted, +23% yoy currency-neutral); Adjusted net income stood at $2595m (+11% yoy adjusted, +20% yoy currency neutral). The strong results experienced in the third quarter was on the back of resilience in consumer spending and cross border recovery. 

Key business drivers for Mastercard is still going strong with growth recorded across all three key business drivers in 3Q22 – 11% for gross dollar volume, 44% for cross-border volume, and 9% for switched transactions. Interestingly, GDV for the rest of the world was 12% higher, outpacing the 10% growth in the United States 

Management remains positive on 4Q22. Mastercard’s management is guiding for 4Q net revenue to increase at the high end of the mid-teens range on a currency-neutral and yoy basis. Management continues to see resilience in consumer spending despite macroeconomic headwinds on shifts in spending towards travel as borders reopen. In particularly, there is more room to grow in Asia with cross-border inbound travel still below pre-pandemic levels at 76%. 

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