- Tesla delivered 485k/1.808m vehicles in 4Q23/FY23, in-line with guidance and consensus’ expectations
- Consensus is currently expecting 2.2m vehicle shipments for FY24, implying +21% yoy growth
- Headwinds continue to persist from steepening EV competition and weakening China sales. Maintain HOLD with unchanged TP of US$255
Tesla 4Q/FY23 deliveries in-line. Tesla delivered 485k vehicles in 4Q23 (+11% qoq, +20% yoy), which translates into a full year FY23 delivery of 1.808m vehicles (+38% yoy), in-line with management’s target of 1.8m. Tesla’s deliveries are also in-line with consensus expectations of 1.805m.
Headwinds continue to persist. Consensus is currently expecting Tesla to deliver 2.2m vehicles in FY24, in which we believe there is potential for negative surprises given the steepening EV competition (especially from BYD) and weakening China sales. BYD is emerging as a significant competitor to Tesla, noting that 4Q23 was the first quarter where BYD has beaten Tesla in terms of BEV deliveries, with BYD delivering 526k BEV vehicles in 4Q23, exceeding Tesla’s 4Q23 shipments by 9%. On a full year basis, while Tesla is still the global number 1 EV player at 1.8m EV sales (versus BYD’s 1.57m BEV sales for FY23), BYD has seen stronger momentum in its q-o-q vehicle sales growth in recent quarters relative to Tesla. Whilst Tesla is set to launch its revamped Model Y SUV in China by 1H24, we remain cautious around China’s stiff EV competition. Looking forward, Tesla will be releasing its financial results on 24 Jan 2024, with Tesla’s 2024 vehicle target and margins outlook as key datapoints to watch. We maintain HOLD recommendation with unchanged TP of US$255 as we anticipate continued industry headwinds with potential negative surprises in Tesla’s 2024 vehicle targets/consensus expectations.
| 1Q22 | 2Q22 | 3Q22 | 4Q22 | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | QoQ | YoY | ||
| Deliveries (#) | 310,048 | 254,695 | 343,830 | 405,278 | 422,875 | 466,140 | 435,059 | 484,507 | 11% | 20% | |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023E | Beat | YoY | 2024E | YoY | |
| Deliveries (#) | 245,506 | 367,656 | 499,647 | 936,222 | 1,313,851 | 1,808,581 | 1,805,282 | 0% | 38% | 2,196,015 | 21% |
Note: 2023E/2024E refers to consensus estimates obtained from Visible Alpha. Source: Company, DBS Bank