<Alert!> GM takes the crown for US auto sales in 2023
- Reported 2023 US auto sales at 2.59m, up 14% yoy, slightly outpacing industry average
- GM takes over Toyota as the top selling OEM brand in the US
- Management expects healthy 2024 US industry outlook, which is a positive signal. Continue to watch for EV transition. Maintain HOLD with revised TP of US$36.50 (previously US$30).
GM reported strong 2023 US auto sales. GM reported 4Q23 US vehicle sales of 625k (-7% qoq, +0% yoy), with FY23 US vehicle delivery at 2.59m (+14% yoy). 2023 marks the best year for GM in terms of US auto sales since the pandemic, with US vehicle growth rate at 14%, exceeding that of the industry’s growth rate of 12%. Further, GM has also outpaced Toyota in terms of US vehicle sales growth which came in at 2.25m, taking the top selling spot for US auto sales. Going forward into 2024, GM expects overall US auto sales to reach 2019’s levels which implies a healthy 10% growth yoy, which we see as a positive signal amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Continue to watch for EV transition. Though, GM’s EV transition remains lacklustre, with all-electric sales making up 2.9% of GM’s 2023 US sales, of which were mainly contributed by the now discontinued Chevrolet Bolt model. In Nov 2023, GM has also highlighted that it would be dialling back on EV/technology investments and has planned stock buyback and dividend increases instead, which puts GM’s long term growth story in question amid an industry that is heavily ramping up on EV/battery/ADAS efforts. We continue to watch for GM’s EV transition, noting that its EU legacy peers are leading significantly ahead of GM in terms of BEV sales mix (BMW: 13%, Mercedes: 11%, VW: 8%). We maintain HOLD albeit with a higher TP of US$36.50 (previously US$30) on the back of GM’s positive industry outlook. Our TP pegs GM’s FY24F EPS to a forward PE multiple of 4.9x, which is aligned with -1SD of its historical average PE (previously 4.2x, -1.5SD of historical average).
| General Motors | 1Q-22 | 2Q-22 | 3Q-22 | 4Q-22 | 1Q-23 | 2Q-23 | 3Q-23 | 4Q-23 | QoQ | YoY | |||
| US Sales (#) | 512,846 | 582,401 | 555,580 | 623,261 | 603,208 | 691,978 | 674,336 | 625,176 | -7% | 0% | |||
| General Motors | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | YoY | |||||||
| US Sales (m) | 2.89 | 2.55 | 2.22 | 2.27 | 2.59 | 14% | |||||||
| Overall industry | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023F | YoY | GM 2024F | YoY |
| US Sales (m) | 16.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.2 | 17.3 | 17.0 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 13.9 | 15.5 | 12% | 17.0 | 10% |
Note: 2023F is based on industry estimates. GM 2024F refers to GM’s 2024 US industry outlook estimates. Source: GM, Kelley Blue Book, Cox Automotive, DBS Bank