Unmatched resilience
- FY23 preliminary earnings down 7.6% y-o-y, widening from 0.9% y-o-y decline in 9M23 as market activity remained soft in 4Q23
- Cut FY23F/24F earnings by 22%/41% to reflect (1) weaker-than-expected recovery in sentiment and (2) lower IB and trading income due to temporary regulatory tightening
- Yet, we think CITICS will stand out from peers due to its more diversified business mix and stronger profitability
- Maintain BUY on CITICS-H, TP lowered to HK$19 to reflect lower earnings forecast and multiple; maintain HOLD on CITICS-A, TP lifted to Rmb23 after applying 40% target A-H premium