<Results Analysis> 3Q23 results in-line, Mounjaro still the key driver
- Excluding COVID-19 and divested products (olanzapine portfolio), 3Q23 revenue up 24% y-o-y, slightly beating consensus by 5.4%.
- Diabetes medication Mounjaro commands great attention with data appearing to be superior than the popular weight-loss drug Wegovy.
- We anticipate indication expansion of Mounjaro for obesity by year-end, and positive updates on Alzheimer’s drug donanemab in 1Q24. Maintain BUY with TP of US$615.
3Q23 results were in-line, with Mounjaro being the key growth driver. Excluding COVID-19 and divested products (olanzapine portfolio), 3Q23 revenue grew 24% y-o-y to US$9.5bn, slightly beating consensus by 5.4%. Acquired in-process R&D expenses from acquisitions totaled US$2.98bn in 3Q23, negatively impacting EPS by $3.29. Mounjaro in diabetes will command greatest attention as their weight-loss data appeared to be superior to Wegovy.
Positive product news will boost share price. Mounjaro is currently indicated for type 2 diabetes. We anticipate indication expansion of Mounjaro for obesity by year-end. This would boost share price, as its weight-loss data appeared to be superior than the widely popular Wegovy. Another product focus is Alzheimer’s drug donanemab following positive phase 3 data reported, with updates from FDA expected in 1Q24.