3Q23: Net Profit Up 23% qoq To Rmb2.823b, 28% Above Consensus
Li Auto posted upbeat 3Q23 results with net profit growing 23% qoq to Rmb2.823b on delivery growth and margin improvement. Looking ahead, management guides for 4Q23 deliveries of between 125,000 units (+170% yoy/+19% qoq) and 128,000 units (+176% yoy/+22% qoq) and revenue of between Rmb38.46b (+118% yoy/+11% qoq) and Rmb39.38b (+123% yoy/+14% qoq). We raise 2023 net profit forecast by 7% and keep those for 2024-25 unchanged. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$312.00.
RESULTS
- 3Q23 earnings up 23% qoq, in line. Li Auto Inc (Li Auto) posted 3Q23 net profit of Rmb2.823b (+23% qoq), roughly in line with our estimate of Rmb2.8b and 28% above consensus estimate of Rmb2.2b. Net profit reached Rmb6.05b in 9M23, representing 70% of our estimated 2023 net profit of Rmb8.7b and 75% of consensus’ 2023 net profit of Rmb8.1b.
- Deliveries beat guidance. Li Auto’s deliveries quadrupled yoy and grew 21.5% qoq to 105,775 units in 3Q23, beating management’s guidance of 100,000-103,000 units. The buoyant sales growth was driven by L9 and L8. Monthly deliveries of L9 and L8 grew 51%/40% qoq to 32,242 units/33,735 units in 3Q23.
- ASP remained flat qoq at Rmb320,000 units, albeit down 6%, with the launch of the cheaper L7 dragging down overall ASP.
