Window of Accumulation
- FY24F/25F adj group EBITDA lowered by 13%/8%, bringing us in line with consensus, mobility growth expectations trimmed.
- Slower recovery in tourism and airport rides may lead to a 14% mobility GMV growth in FY24F (vs. 17% prev.)
- BUY with a lower TP of US$4.08 for a 40% upside potential. Excluding Fintech losses, GRAB remains attractive with a 40% discount to UBER
Slower-than-expected recovery in tourism could slow down the growth in mobility segment. Southeast Asia’s tourism exhibited recovery in 2023, but challenges persist as Singapore lags and Chinese tourist numbers are below expectations. In 2023, Southeast Asia’s tourism industry witnessed a resurgence, with notable recovery rates seen in key markets – Malaysia leading at 26m visitors, followed by Thailand (24.6m) and Vietnam (12.6m). Singapore, while on the path to recovery, lagged pre-pandemic levels due to lower-than-expected Chinese tourist numbers. The 12.4m visitors between Jan–Nov 2023 were still significantly below the 19.1m who visited Singapore in 2019. Vietnam’s growth, though significant, remained at 70% of pre-pandemic levels, highlighting regional variations. Cambodia stood out with a remarkable 92.48% recovery. The anticipated return of Chinese tourists in 2024 is expected to boost the region’s recovery. China leads non-ASEAN tourist arrivals, comprising 8.2% in 1H23. Furthermore, airport rides are dominated by GRAB in Singapore, which grew to 84% of pre-pandemic levels in 3Q23. The slowdown in tourism recovery could impact these airport rides, impacting GRAB’s mobility segment.
We lowered mobility segment adj. EBITDA by 4%/5% in FY24F/25F, based on tourism slowdown. Due to the aforementioned factors, we lowered GRAB’s mobility segment GMV by 4%/5% in FY24F/25F bring our overall GMV expectations 1% each below consensus in FY24F/25F. Adj. EBITDA projection in FY24F/25F was reduced by 13%/8% due to the mobility segment. Previously, we were above consensus, by 13%8/% for FY24F/25F. However, now our FY25F projection is in line and FY24F projection is 2% below consensus.
